Wednesday, 26 November 2014

VOR 26/11 - 1240z posreport - keeping your friends close...

The pack has tightened up again, I guess ADOR were getting lonely out there all by themselves and decided to come back to the party.


All optimisations I am running are indicating a higher track than the fleet has been sailing over the last 3 posreports.

Is ADOR playing it safe? Or did they think they made a mistake and could get hung out to dry. IMHO, the former.



 Route still takes on Tropical Cyclone (was just a TD yesterday...). Each new weather model is pretty consistent in its behaviour.

Video of the run from 1240z posreport


VOR 2611 - 0640z update...stemming the bleeding

0640z posreport just in...still losses for ADOR, but at a reduced rate and reduced range


Fleet opting to foot off a bit more than the routing proposes...and getting slightly tighter on getting W of the TD


And still not reasonable to draw too many conclusions on results...


VOR 26/11 - Dancing with depression

The 0040z posreport and recent grib files have all shown the TD consistently making its way across the path of the VOR fleet and having to be dealt with.

GMDSS forecast for the region:

WTIO20 FMEE 260031
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/11/2014
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 26/11/2014 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2  998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7 S / 68.9 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 300 TO 350 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE
MAINLY WITHIN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTORS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/11/26 AT 12 UTC:
12.5 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2014/11/27 AT 00 UTC:
13.3 S / 65.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

Not expecting ADOR to put the wheels down, Reunion Island will have to be dealt with, but in the interests of letting the routing run as unconstrained as possible have not avoided land (only the exclusion zones).



Running the boats through the models still shows the fleet dicing with the W quadrant of the system:

Sat imagery shows a fair amount of cloud activity with the TD...image at 0015z


So, results wise still very tight. Although haemorrhaging miles registered as losses, ADOR are consolidating and...I still like how they are positioned and show confidence in
their decision making and willingness to split and come back when they like.

As reported in the sched and according to the models ADOR should be lifted and in more pressure than MAPF.

Sched gains/losses are relative to the 1840z sched yesterday, to the E tip of Oman.

Tight!



Tuesday, 25 November 2014

VOR 25/11 0640z - playing chicken

This mornings run from the 0640z posreport and with the 00z GFS grib suggests a tack from approx 07z. ADOR, MAPF and DFRT appear to have tacked at the 0640z report or just before.

Interesting to see ADOR tacked straight back at the latest report (0940z) - my guess is they like the left/NW, wanted to push the fleet right- tacking at the sched the fleet see this and wanted to keep right rather than have ADOR sail across the top of them, but then ADOR go straight back to keep the separation.

The simulations below from the 0640z report and 00z GFS also now include a current model, the changes are subtle in the routing with/without current, but interesting to see there is some significant current to contend with.
RTOFS current at 0640z

The optimal fleet run still shows a drag race with 3 key decision points (when to tack or gybe), but also still shows the fleet playing chicken with the forecast tropical depression moving over the route and with the boats by the end of the week. Report here about this


The results are not really to be read into too much, since the differences are subtle, and the spread over the fleet at the finish point (E tip of Oman) is only 2% of the time left in the leg...


Monday, 24 November 2014

VOR - tight, very tight

All distances are relative to a mark off the E tip of Oman...still too tight to make a call on who has any advantage...

No time for a video capture right now, but tomorrow...
Posreport information

Routing results

Route

VOR - covering

Looks like they were waiting for the posreport (and someone to go first) in the shift...

Looks like we are finally going to get some decent separation, which will make it interesting!


1240z posreport showing everyone in NE winds (bar SCA being the most Southerly)

Optimisation from 0640 showing the tack to the N in the shift, however the thinner lines showing the fleet carry on to the next report

And the tracker right after the position report published...the header in the right, but ADOR and VEST have tacked

VOR routes 24 11 2014 - tropical cyclone...

This mornings run tells a very similar story, and the slight separation across the pack does not at this stage look like it impacts the results - ADOR's early gybe N has saved some miles but potentially slightly less pressure initially?

Will be interesting to see how the fleet manages the Tropical Cyclone forecast by GFS towards the end of the week.
A drag race with 4 x transitions to manage...
Cannot read too much into the results at this stage, as is merely a representation of where the boats are currently relative to each other. They are all still in the game, however SCA seems to have a slight speed deficit?